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Government’s analysis, assessment and research activities
Review: Energy sector transitions will change geopolitical balance

Government Communications Department 11.9.2017 12.54
News item 45/2017

The energy sector is undergoing a global transition. Although an energy sector quarter is said to be 25 years, it is already evident that there will be clear winners and losers when it comes to forms of energy, namely renewable and fossil fuels, used in the future. Current consortia will break down and new ones will form when shifts in the energy sector until 2040 are studied using scenario analysis. The importance of electricity grids will grow and the dependence on electricity increase. At the same time, however, an increasing proportion of electricity will be generated from renewable fuels and by using new technologies.

According to the Policy Brief published on 11. September, the pace at which the energy sector will change depends on the political forces driving the change (e.g. the taxes and incentives concerning the energy sector, and the climate targets), technological developments, and the stability of the operating environment, which affects, among other things, the trends in investments. The Policy Brief provides a scenario-based overview of changes in the energy sector up to 2040 and the potential impact of shifts in the energy priorities. Future changes and their impact were analysed from both the political and market (demand and supply) perspectives while taking account of global trends in the energy sector. The results are based not only on market knowledge and forecasts but also on existing research and analysis reports as well as on different publications on future energy scenarios.

The Policy Brief was prepared as part of the project Energia ja huoltovarmuus: geopoliittisten ja strategisten siirtymien ennakointi turvallisuuspoliittisesta näkökulmasta (Energy and security of supply — predicting geopolitical and strategic shifts from the perspective of security policy). The project, started in April 2017, is implemented by Pöyry Management Consulting Oy together with the Aleksanteri Institute of the University of Helsinki.  The project is part of the implementation of the 2017 Government plan for analysis, assessment and research.

Further information about the Government’s analysis, assessment and research activities is available at tietokayttoon.fi

Policy Brief (in English)

Inquiries: Satu Lyyra, Senior Consultant, Pöyry Management Consulting Oy, tel. +358 10 332 4350, satu.lyyra(at)poyry.com, Kati Vuorenvirta, Senior Specialist, Chair of the Steering Committee, Ministry of Defence, tel. +358 295 160 361, kati.vuorenvirta(at)defmin.fi